New Zealand Declares Polymarket and Kalshi Illegal Under Gambling Law

New Zealand declares Polymarket illegal under its current gambling framework, confirming that the prediction market platform is not authorised to operate in the country. Regulators also ruled that Kalshi falls under the same classification. The decision places both companies within the scope of New Zealand’s gambling laws, despite their claims of operating as financial trading platforms.

The ruling comes at a time when New Zealand is reshaping its online gambling landscape. While Parliament advances a bill to auction 15 online casino licences, the wider market remains tightly controlled, with only one authorised online wagering provider currently allowed to operate.

Regulator Classifies Prediction Markets as Gambling

The Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) has determined that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi meet the legal definition of gambling under both the Gambling Act 2003 and the Racing Industry Act 2020.

Both companies offer event-based contracts that allow users to stake money on future outcomes. These can include political results, economic decisions, sporting events, or other real-world developments. The companies have promoted these contracts as financial instruments rather than bets. However, New Zealand’s regulator has rejected that distinction.

Under existing legislation, only authorised operators may offer online wagering products to residents. As neither Polymarket nor Kalshi holds approval to operate in the country, the DIA considers their services prohibited.

The move reflects the government’s broader effort to clarify how online gambling in New Zealand is regulated, particularly as new licensing reforms move through Parliament.

Platforms Still Accessible, For Now

Despite the ruling, access to the platforms remains possible. New Zealand does not currently require internet service providers to block gambling websites at the network level.

At the time of the decision, neither Polymarket nor Kalshi had implemented geoblocking measures to restrict New Zealand users. The DIA has indicated it intends to notify both companies for clarity formally. In at least one case, steps were reportedly taken quickly to deactivate accounts and prevent new sign-ups. The other platform does not appear to have taken immediate action.

Importantly, enforcement is focused on the operators rather than individual users. While participating in unauthorised gambling can technically breach the law, the regulator has made clear its priority is addressing the platforms themselves.

A Market Still Dominated by Monopoly

At present, online race and sports betting in New Zealand is available only through TAB New Zealand, which operates under an exclusive arrangement managed by Entain. This monopoly structure was formalised as part of broader reforms to the racing and wagering sector.

Online casino gambling remains largely offshore. While residents may access overseas casino sites, locally based online casinos are prohibited. Advertising offshore casino gambling within New Zealand is also restricted.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Online Casino Gambling Bill is progressing through Parliament. If passed, it would allow for the auction of up to 15 licensed online casino operators. The government has framed the reform as a move toward greater consumer protection, harm minimisation, and tax collection.

The classification of prediction markets adds another layer to this evolving regulatory environment.

Following Australia’s Lead

New Zealand’s position mirrors recent action across the Tasman. Earlier this month, Australia’s communications regulator concluded that Polymarket constituted gambling rather than a financial market.

The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) subsequently directed internet providers to block access to the site. Regulatory findings showed significant Australian traffic to the platform and the absence of meaningful location verification controls at the time.

New Zealand’s decision does not currently include mandatory ISP-level blocking. However, the alignment in regulatory reasoning suggests prediction markets are facing growing scrutiny in the region.

Part of a Wider Global Pattern

The debate over whether prediction markets are financial tools or gambling platforms is playing out globally.

In recent months:

• Portugal ordered Polymarket to leave the country following concerns about political betting activity.
• Hungary initiated proceedings over alleged illegal gambling and imposed access restrictions.
• The Netherlands warned that betting on political events remains prohibited even where a site holds a gambling licence.

These actions reflect increasing discomfort among regulators with event-based contracts tied to elections and other political developments.

What This Means for New Zealand Users

For New Zealand residents, the message from regulators is clear: prediction markets fall within gambling law and are not authorised to operate locally.

In practical terms, users may still technically access certain platforms unless geoblocking measures are implemented. However, the absence of local authorisation means there is no regulatory recourse in the event of disputes. Consumer protection mechanisms typically associated with licensed gambling operators would not apply.

At the same time, the government’s broader gambling reforms suggest that change is underway. The potential introduction of licensed online casino operators could reshape the legal environment over the next year.

For now, though, prediction markets sit outside New Zealand’s permitted online gambling framework, and regulators have signalled they intend to keep it that way.